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Russia pausing offensive ahead of renewed assault, say analysts

Moscow is easing its offensive in Ukraine only temporarily and it is most likely preparing for a renewed assault, analysts claim.

On Wednesday, Russian forces made no claimed or assessed territorial gains in Ukraine “for the first time in 133 days of war”, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The think tank based in Washington suggested that Moscow may be taking an “operational pause” that does not entail “the complete cessation of active hostilities”.

“Russian forces will likely confine themselves to relatively small-scale offensive actions as they attempt to set conditions for more significant offensive operations and rebuild the combat power needed to attempt those more ambitious undertakings,” the institute said.

Bombardment across Ukraine continues

Slowing down the assault, however, does not mean that Russia has not carried on with bombardment across Ukraine — something that analysts claim has escalated in recent weeks. 

Shelling continued in Ukraine’s east, where at least nine civilians were killed and six wounded in 24 hours, Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine’s presidential office said in its Thursday morning update that cities and villages in seven Ukrainian regions were shelled in the past day. Most civilian deaths occurred in Donetsk province, where fighting is ongoing. Seven civilians were killed there, including a child, the presidential office said.

Ten cities and villages came under shelling in Donetsk, and 35 buildings were destroyed, including a school, a vocational college and a hospital, officials said.

Donetsk is part of the industrial area of the Donbas, where Ukraine’s most experienced soldiers are concentrated. Moscow-backed and equipped separatists have fought Ukrainian forces and controlled large parts of the region for eight years.

Russia ‘reconstituting’ its forces, UK MOD claims

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday claimed victory in Luhansk, the other province constituting the Donbas, after Ukrainian forces withdrew from the last city they controlled there. 

The governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, denied Wednesday that the Russians had completely captured the province.

In Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, a boarding school was hit, but no one was injured. The Kharkiv region, which lies along the border with Russia, is under daily shelling, and two civilians were killed there over the past 24 hours.

The Ukrainian military said Thursday that Russian forces also carried out shelling and helicopter strikes in the Sumy region in the northeast.

Even as the fighting continued, the British Defence Ministry said it thinks Russia’s military is “reconstituting” its forces. A ministry intelligence assessment issued Thursday said the heavy shelling along the front line in Donetsk is likely intended to secure previous Russian gains.

The British ministry noted a new law under consideration by the Russian parliament to give the government special economic powers amid the war.

The law would allow “Russia to avoid acknowledging it is engaged in a war or its failure to overcome Ukraine’s military that was outnumbered and outgunned,” the ministry said.


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