Health

Johnson & Johnson vaccine supply to plummet next week in California as demand surges


California’s planned full reopening on June 15 is banking on millions of residents being vaccinated.

But recently released federal data are raising new questions as to whether supply will match expectations.

Although California’s allocations of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are expected to remain relatively steady through next week, the state — along with the rest of the nation — will see availability crater for the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

This week, 574,900 Johnson & Johnson doses were allocated to the Golden State. Next week, that number will plummet to 67,600, an 88% drop, according to data from the CDC.

The allocation is expected to fall even further the week of April 18, to 22,400, according to the California Department of Public Health.

“To put this into perspective, the supply projections for the next two weeks are approximately what the state received in the second half of March,” department spokesman Darrel Ng wrote in an email Thursday.

This nosedive for Johnson & Johnson will drive down the size of the state’s federal allocation from the 2.4 million doses received this week, to 2 million next week and 1.9 million the week after that.

However, Ng pointed out that “there are multiple vaccine supply streams coming into the state.” The direct state allocation accounts for about 70% of the total, with the remainder flowing straight from the federal government to pharmacies, health centers and other qualified entities.

It’s unclear how long it will take to reverse the drop in supply. Regardless, Ng said California will expand eligibility as planned next week.

Newsom acknowledged earlier this week that supply of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine remained uncertain, but he said he was hopeful for more stability.

“We have lots of confidence in the medium run and long run,” he said, “meaning the short-term with J&J variability begins to give way to more confidence in May,” with expectation that the vaccine “will substantially come in at a much higher and more predictable number.”

The availability — or lack thereof — of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine isn’t a problem only for California. Nationwide allocations are set to tumble from nearly 5 million this week to 700,000 next week.

Rollout of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been inconsistent and dogged by production issues. Last week, the company said a batch of vaccine had failed quality standards and couldn’t be used. The drugmaker didn’t reveal how many doses were affected, though news reports pegged the number at 15 million.

To date, providers throughout California have doled out nearly 20.9 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, and 35.1% of residents have received at least one shot, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Roughly 18.8% of Californians are fully vaccinated, meaning they’ve either received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine or both required doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine.

Nationwide, 33.1% of Americans have received at least one dose, and 19.4% are fully vaccinated, CDC data show.

During the early phases of the vaccine rollout, California restricted access to the shots to those considered at highest risk from COVID-19, either because of their age, occupation or underlying health conditions.

President Biden had initially said states should make all adults eligible for COVID-19 vaccines by May 1. But he announced a more aggressive timeline — setting a deadline of April 19.




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